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Blog (EN)

Delinquencies in the US credit business have risen gradually over the last 18 months

While the officially reported macro data in the US still point to solid economic momentum, first cracks in underlying fundamentals can be seen beneath the surface. The Federal Reserve’s historic campaign of interest rate hikes has massively increased lending rates over the past 18 months – with far-reaching consequences for borrowers, who are increasingly struggling …

Delinquencies in the US credit business have risen gradually over the last 18 months Read More »

Long-term bonds offer attractive returns after the end of a monetary tightening cycle

In view of the advanced stage of the monetary and economic cycle, we currently consider high-quality government and corporate bonds with longer maturities to be an attractive investment opportunity.  History has taught us that these issuers have been able to generate significant excess returns after the last interest rate hike by central banks. For example, …

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Follow-up on Margin Debt

Follow-up on our “Notes From The Field” post in March 2021 – Margin Debt.  Three months ago we highlighted the contrarian sentiment indicator that has flagged three major market tops (1972, 2000, 2007) since 1970. With the most recent data, the year-over-year change in margin-debt has risen above 55%. Once this threshold is exceeded, it …

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Power Earnings Gap (PEG)

When earnings season is in full swing, every investor has his favorite setup to trade and follow. At Tramondo, our favorite setup is the “Power Earnings Gap” – in short we call it “PEG”, which was originally created by @traderstewie. Why? Because a “PEG” highlights so many traits of very successful companies and works best …

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Our Five Thematic Investing Rules

Our five thematic investing rules To paraphrase famous physicist Richard Feynman’s quote on quantum mechanics: the feeling of having finally grasped thematic investing indicates that one hasn’t understood thematic investing at all. Simplistic approaches to the segment inevitably lead to disappointment, but investors who approach it strategically, yet with an adaptive mindset and an active …

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Should you buy Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) or is there a less “risky” option?

An IPO is a company’s first offering of stock to the public. They are important to follow as 80% of the biggest winning stocks tend to be companies that IPO’d within the previous 10 years. The reason being is that most of a company’s growth usually occurs in the first few years after common stock …

Should you buy Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) or is there a less “risky” option? Read More »

Use accumulation volume to find powerful stocks

Most recently, we have witnessed a significant bear market in megatrend stocks and themes (cloud, fintech, artificial intelligence, millennials, digital health, cybersecurity, etc.) as well as in several high-quality companies such as Adobe or Partners Group.  Is there a regime change taking place from the old favorites to a different type of stock and theme, …

Use accumulation volume to find powerful stocks Read More »

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