Explore the latest trends and strategic insights in the November 2025 edition of the “Market Compass.”
November 2025 was marked by the tech earnings season and a cautious trade détente between the US and China. While Silicon Valley delivered impressive quarterly results, Trump and Xi signaled a fragile pause in the trade conflict – a development that triggered mixed reactions in markets.
Highlights Include:
Silicon Valley shines – The highly anticipated quarterly results of the major tech companies have once again cemented Silicon Valley’s leadership. Amazon surged by 10% on strong cloud business numbers, with the unit’s revenue clearly beating expectations and alleviating recent concerns about market-share losses to Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle. Apple is guiding for the best holiday quarter in its history: thanks to strong iPhone 17 demand, the company expects 10-12% revenue growth after having barely grown since 2022. Meta Platforms, by contrast, lost ground (-11.7% in October) as CEO Mark Zuckerberg startled investors with massive AI investment plans that raised eyebrows on Wall Street. Combined with a disappointing Q4 outlook, investors sent Meta shares into a tailspin. In aggregate, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 advanced by 4.8% in October and the S&P 500 gained 2.3%.
Trump and Xi signal a truce – US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping achieved a temporary easing of trade tensions at their first meeting since 2019 on the sidelines of the APEC summit. Both sides agreed to cut US tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%, including halving the penalty tariff on precursors to the painkiller fentanyl to 10%. In return, China plans to purchase large quantities of US soybeans, maintain exports of “rare earths,” and crack down more forcefully on the illegal fentanyl trade. Sensitive topics such as exports of US semiconductor chips or the Taiwan question were not addressed, according to Trump. It remains unclear how durable this understanding will be: both economies continue to signal toughness in their geoeconomic rivalry, suggesting the détente should be seen as a fragile pause.
Volatility in the gold market – What looked like a continuation of the strong trend in the first half of the month reversed into month-end: from the top, gold corrected by about 8.1%. Against the backdrop of an impressive YTD return of 45.9%, the pause is understandable. For a “safe haven,” however, such swings are unusual – a sign that short-term speculation may have had a greater impact on price formation recently. The metal lost around 2.7% in the last week of the reporting period and repeatedly tested its key support at USD 4,000.
Diverging central banks – As widely anticipated by market participants, the US Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 0.25% in October. At the press conference, Chair Powell cautioned that another rate cut in December is by no means set in stone. He argued that the ongoing “government shutdown” is increasingly depriving the Fed of timely data needed to assess the monetary backdrop – requiring the central bank to tap the brakes in the short term. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank has kept policy rates unchanged. In light of extensive fiscal measures enacted in recent quarters – led by Germany – the ECB President clearly prefers a cautious approach for now.
US equity markets have lagged many of their peers – “Make America Great Again” epitomizes the notion of “US exceptionalism.” While leading US indices such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have indeed set a series of new record highs during Trump’s renewed presidency, the United States no longer so clearly dominates global equity-market performance. Over the year since Donald Trump’s re-election, the S&P 500 has gained 19.7%, while the Nasdaq 100 has returned 29.5%. Excluding technology, however, US equity performance looks far more subdued – the equal-weighted S&P 500 has advanced by only 6.4% over the same period. By contrast, several Asian markets have posted pronounced outperformance: South Korea’s KOSPI has risen by 58.7%, Japan’s Nikkei by 36.2%, Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh Index by 31.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index by 26.0%.
Outlook for the final two months of 2025 – November is historically the strongest month of the year with an average return of 1.9% for the S&P 500. We currently see no reason to change our neutral stance on global equities – we continue to view the underlying risk/reward as balanced. As in previous months, the market is likely to remain highly selective, with quality companies with strong cash flows taking the lead. At a regional level, the United States remains our first choice, followed by select Asian markets that should benefit from political tailwinds (Japan) or structural supply chain shifts (Vietnam). Finally, a word on gold: we remain constructive despite the recent price weakness. Looking ahead to 2026, continued Fed monetary easing, a weaker US dollar, and declining real yields clearly argue for the bull market to continue.
Ready to dive in? Download the full PDF of our November 2025 Market Compass for a detailed analysis and forward-looking guidance on navigating today’s financial markets.
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