Explore the latest trends and strategic insights in the September 2025 edition of the “Market Compass.”
This issue highlights Fed Chairman Powell’s rate cut signals at Jackson Hole, the challenging peace negotiations between Trump and Putin, and significant court rulings on U.S. import tariffs amid a complex geopolitical landscape.
Highlights Include:
US Federal Reserve signals rate cut – At the recent Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming, Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the focus of monetary policy is increasingly shifting towards weakening labour markets. Both the supply and demand sides of the labour market are showing clear signs of cooling. All in all, the Federal Reserve appears to be rolling out the red carpet for a rate cut in September – the first rate move since December 2024.
Tough peace negotiations in the Ukraine/Russia conflict – The mid-August 2025 summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, was followed with great international anticipation. While both sides stressed the need to continue dialogue, no tangible results were achieved. Key points of contention remained unresolved. Notably, Kyiv was not included in the talks, which significantly limited the meeting’s impact and drew strong criticism from Europe.
Court of Appeals rules import tariffs illegal – On August 29, 2025, a U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that significant portions of the import tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal. The ruling reinforces and intensifies the legal pressure on the administration. Nevertheless, the tariffs are allowed to remain in force until October 14 to enable a potential Supreme Court appeal.
Historic meeting between China and India – The leaders of the world’s two most populous countries, China and India, met in August on the sidelines of a security conference – their first encounter in seven years. Both nations reaffirmed their intention to strengthen cooperation going forward, after years marked by geopolitical disputes. Their shared trade-policy adversary, the United States, is evidently prompting even former bitter rivals to move closer together.
September’s seasonal challenges – This year, September’s seasonal weakness coincides with a particularly challenging market environment. Historical data show that September is far from a star performer for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 averaging a loss of about 0.7% since 1950, making September the only month with a 56% probability of losses exceeding gains.
Ready to dive in? Download the full PDF of our September 2025 Market Compass for a detailed analysis and forward-looking guidance on navigating today’s financial markets.
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