We strongly believe that financial markets and the real economy will have to cope and live with higher inflation – in 2022 and beyond. However, in the short-run, we may see a moderation of inflation pressure as supportive base effects in capital goods and commodities may spur some relief in Q4 2022.
In September, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) hiked its key policy rate by 75 bps bringing it to a level of 0.5%. Switzerland was the last European country that raised its policy rate back into positive territory, finally ending a long era of negative interest rates.
At the moment, we closely monitor market action in order to identify stringent signals that equity markets have finally bottomed out. We believe that such a moment is rather close. Hence, we are reviewing our equity exposure to scale up equity risk again if underlying market dynamics warrant a more risk-on stance.