Cooling in Europe, record highs in the USA.

Our view on the markets and investment strategy in the July 2025 Market Compass.

Highlights Include:

European equity markets are struggling

While U.S. equity markets reached new record highs toward the end of the month (S&P 500 +5.0%, Nasdaq 100 +6.3%), momentum in Europe has recently cooled noticeably. The German DAX and EuroStoxx 50 posted losses as previous high-flying stocks like Rheinmetall and Deutsche Telekom came under profit-taking pressure.

Markets driven by politics rarely have lasting momentum

The military escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict had only a temporary impact on market dynamics. The U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure marked a dramatic end to weeks of provocations—an event markets likely viewed as the long-awaited "clearing event."

ECB and SNB signal end of interest rate cycle

Both the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank surprised markets with unexpectedly explicit messages that their current interest rate cutting cycles may have come to an end. The SNB lowered rates to 0.0% while not ruling out negative rates entirely.

Tesla's sales momentum stalls

Electric carmaker Tesla saw a 40% drop in vehicle sales in Europe compared to the same month last year, even as overall auto industry sales rose for the second consecutive month. This decline is widely speculated to stem from consumer criticism of CEO Elon Musk's political activism.

History shows new all‑time highs often signal rally beginnings

Despite only 22 constituent stocks hitting new highs alongside the S&P 500's latest record, broad underlying strength suggests further upside potential. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged 20 record closes per year, provided no major crisis intervened.

Ready to dive in?

Download the full PDF of our July 2025 Market Compass for a detailed analysis and forward-looking guidance on navigating today's financial markets.

Do not hesitate to contact us with any questions about the topics discussed. We are happy to assist you with our expertise.